Nabeel Hussain
“A person who does not learn from history is doomed to repeat it”. This famous
quote of historian Santana has immensely pretentious Moscow. The Afghan War of
1979 led to the disintegration of the USSR. However, in the post-cold war era
Afghanistan remained no longer imperative for Russia, because Russia was busy in
collating its scattered parts. The civil war in Afghanistan which created a
Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 1996 left Afghanistan into political chaos. In
the post-cold war period Russia remained absent from Afghanistan’s political
scenario. In order to fill up this vacuum the US served as a catalyst and
invaded Afghanistan under the veil of curbing terrorism and counterterrorism
after the 9/11 attacks.
The event of 9/11 brought Russia back to the political life of Afghanistan.
Russian President Vladimir Putin presented his five-point plan in support of the
US war against terrorism. He pledged that his Russian government would (a) share
intelligence with their American counterparts, (b) open Russian airspace for
flights providing humanitarian assistance (c) cooperate with Russia's Central
Asian allies to provide similar kinds of airspace access to American flights,
(d) participate in international search and rescue efforts, and (e) increase
direct assistance – humanitarian as well as military – to the Northern Alliance
and the Rabbani government in Afghanistan. The support of President Putin in the
US war against terrorism was to bring Russia back to the political sphere of
Afghanistan. The US reciprocated by supporting the Russian stance over Chechnya.
The White House spokesperson said, “Chechnya leadership should cut all the
contacts with the terrorist organizations including Osama Bin Laden and
al-Qaeda”. Russia`s resurgence in Afghanistan was mainly because of the US made
its bases in Uzbekistan city of Manas and was actively involved in the Central
Asian Republicans.
However, the relations between the US and Russia were deteriorated after the
Ukrainian crisis in early 2015. After the Ukrainian crisis the Obama
administration imposed sanctions on Russia. John E. Smith, the acting Office of
Foreign Assistance Control director, said in a statement. “It is critical that
Russia takes the steps necessary to comply with its obligations under the Minsk
Agreements and to ensure a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.” The
imposed sanctions on Russia are still not uplifted. After the victory of
Republican candidate Donald Trump in the 2016 elections, Moscow has changed its
strategy and is calling the shots in Afghanistan. Moscow`s active participation
in the domestic and regional affairs related to Afghanistan are to gain its
political and economic interests in the region. The Russian Presidential envoy
to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, has issued a statement that “Moscow will be
hosting a conference between China, Pakistan and Afghanistan on the issues
related to Afghanistan.” The conference would take place at the heels of Heart
of Asia conference. The prime issues related to the intense security situation
in Afghanistan would be in the spotlight.
Moscow wants to be the game changer in Afghanistan and is reluctant to remain in
isolation like the post-cold war era. Firstly, After the statement of the newly
elected President Trump of the US that he does not believe in the Democrats
policy of regime change and will eliminate the terrorist outfits either in shape
of Islamic State (IS) or Taliban. Such statement has issued concern for Moscow,
because if a new war starts in Afghanistan, then it will increase the US
military presence in the region and can also affect the Russian influence on
Central Asian Republicans. Secondly, the growing presence of IS in the region
could also affect Moscow`s interest because the terrorist organizations such as
Islamic Militants of Uzbekistan (IMU) can join the IS and these militants can
infiltrate into Russia. Thirdly, Moscow wants to remain active in Afghanistan,
because Russia wants to uplift the sanctions imposed on Russia after the
Ukrainian crisis by using Afghanistan as a trump card. Fourthly, the Lazuli
route agreement with Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia and Afghanistan
connecting Afghanistan to Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea has also alarmed
Moscow. This route will connect Afghanistan to Europe and it will open new
horizons of transit and trade. This new route of connectivity can also
economically benefit Russia. After having such lucrative options Russia cannot
go back to isolation on the issue of Afghanistan.
After the active participation of the regional and global players in
Afghanistan. A New Great Game has emerged in Afghanistan in which the US, Russia
and China are actively playing their respective roles taking Pakistan and India
as clients. China wants to connect Afghanistan through CPEC behind the veil of
Pakistan, while the US is trying to connect Afghanistan through Chabahar port
taking India and Iran as a client. Moscow wants to be the key player in this New
Great Game, hence Moscow is calling the shots in Afghanistan and connecting the
regional players such China and Pakistan, taking maximum benefit from the CPEC,
the Afghan peace talks hosted by Pakistan and from the rift US and China, India
and Pakistan.
(The writer is M.Phil Graduate from School of Politics & International
Relations, QAU, Islamabad)