Confidence Building Measures (CBMs)
are those steps or agreements on which the states agree with mutual benefit in
mind, and states have faith that such agreement shall be obeyed by all the
concerned. It could include diverse arrangements — such as hotlines,
people-to-people exchanges, and prior notifications of military exercises — that
can help reduce tensions and promote good neighborly relations. These steps or
agreements ultimately develop trust between the states and help in having peace
and stability in the region.
The need for sustained dialogue to effectively address issues of regional
security and to establish effective CBMs for stable relationship in South Asia
cannot be overemphasized. In the backdrop of nuclear tests conducted by India
and Pakistan in May 1998, the two traditional regional rivals and their
neighbours in South Asia and beyond are now, more than ever before, stakeholders
in any efforts that would reduce tensions, build confidence and encourage
regional cooperation. The political and economic stability of the countries of
the region, individually and collectively, are dependent on the ability of the
region to develop sustainable, achievable and effective set and process of CBMs
and institutionalized regional cooperation.
Since their respective nuclear tests of 1998, the volatile relationship between
India and Pakistan is often referred to as the most dangerous potential flash
point in today’s international system. The nuclear tests finally demonstrated
the highest costs of any future conflict between two neighbours whose past
already reflects three major and two less widespread wars. Any future conflict
is more than likely to stem from the differences over Kashmir, an area claimed
by both sides. Furthermore, the likelihood of war increases if one adds the
misunderstandings, the missed signals, and the involvement of non-state elements
to the scenario of confrontation. In other words, there is no dearth of reasons
why India and Pakistan may go to war. Thus the urgent requirement of enforcing
the existing CBMs, and devising new CBMs, ultimately leading to peace and
stability of the region.
India and Pakistan have in the past concluded bilateral agreements or
arrangements to reduce risk of conflict. They have also been part of the
initiative to institutionalized regional cooperation in the form of SAARC, which
has agreeably achieved only limited, if any, success in promoting regional
stability. A central problem in utilizing CBMs is the difficulty in faithfully
implementing the existing CBMs already in place. A review and rethinking of
those CBMs that have not been implemented, or at best implemented with limited
success only, and designing of alternative and effective set of CBMs could be
helped by a better understanding of experiences of successes and failures from
other regions. Apart from initiatives at the level of state, it will be useful
to examine the roles and contributions of non-state actors, especially the
private sector, civil society groups and professional organizations, business
communities, network of research and policy institutions in the light of
experiences of regions where CBMs have functioned more successfully than in this
region.