Weren’t we nations striding out
in a desert like a medieval time caravans having no gadget to find path but only
stars? In a state of agony and numbness both nations inhabited previous thirteen
years that haunted not only the bilateral relations but kept the whole region
hostage of this mutual mistrust and dereliction. But it was a sheer past one can
say while taking account of Pak-Afghan relationship against the backdrop the
above mentioned scenario. The ties took a sudden but congenial turn last week
that was also unpredictable for many indulged into the great game in the south
east Asia.
Hailed as a watershed moment, President Ghani’s visit to Pakistan has been
largely seen as a step forward towards peace in the region as well as having the
potential to balance boisterous India. In a clear departure from the policy of
his predecessor, Hamid Karzai, who had been consistently criticising Pakistan on
Indian hoodwink for perpetuating terrorism in his country, President Ghani
admitted Pakistan’s efforts in the war on terrorism with an earnestness to
dispose of this scourge through an integrative mechanism. In a positive move, he
has agreed to cooperate with Pakistan on the issue of security, defence and
border collaboration while showing compliance to send the Afghan security forces
for training in Pakistan. Mr. Ghani does not want the bad memories of the past
to preoccupy the future prospects that both countries could attend to through
trustworthy and responsible relations.
Increasing trade and assistance, investment and economic cooperation, and
embedding them in egressing Chinese- and American-supported gambits for regional
cooperation and integration around concepts such as the new Silk Road along with
economic and energy corridors should assist in transforming Pakistan-Afghanistan
relations. The leaders of both countries have shown an awareness of this in
their discussions and agreements. Pakistan and Afghanistan are about to or very
precisely have changed the history while both accords to work out plans to take
their bilateral trade from $ 2.5 billion to $ 5 billion by 2017 and to make
their countries a vital link to the South Asian economies. The Afghan president
foregrounded the new geo-political realities and in complete harmony with
Pakistan’s new narrative on relations with Afghanistan, economic linkages with
Central Asia and the goals set for security and stability in both the countries
and consequently in the entire region, an initiative on which the civilian and
military leadership have a unanimous view. The replacement of the
security-centric narrative that characterised relations between the two
countries for well over two decades by a realistic combination of mutual
security concerns and commitment to exploit the existing economic potential in
the two countries. The new technologies available to develop the necessary
infrastructure also promise infinite opportunities for greater regional
connectivity through the implementation of trans-regional projects like
CASA-1000 and TAPI gas pipeline.
Another strong contributing factor for facilitating regional connectivity is the
Chinese interest in the rebuilding of Afghan economy and containing the scourge
of terrorism in China’s Xinjang province, in collaboration with Afghanistan and
Pakistan. The issue also figured in talks between Prime Minister Nawaz and
Chinese leaders during the former’s recent visit to China. The Afghan
president’s visit to Pakistan preceded by visits to Afghanistan by National
Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz, Army Chief General Raheel Sharif and DG ISI Rizwan
Akhtar signify the intensity of the desire that both countries have to make a
new beginning in their relations in the interest of the economic wellbeing of
their people and the improvement of the security environment.
As the US-Nato forces from Afghanistan draws close to withdrawal and the
installation of a new democratic government cognizant of the need to give new
direction to bilateral relations between the two countries, underpinned by
mutual trust and cooperation, new and genuine possibilities have emerged to
delineate the economic and security profiles of both the countries which need to
be exploited through a pragmatic and visionary handling by leaders of both
countries. The visit of the Afghan president has undoubtedly provided that
unique opportunity to take the plunge towards their declared goals.
Moreover Islamabad is concerned about raids into Pakistan from Afghan territory
and the degree of Afghan-Indian security cooperation. The safe havens in
Afghanistan for Pakistani and other militants who conduct these raids could
threaten the success of the Zarb-i-Azb and Khyber One military operations.
Afghanistan’s increasing security cooperation with India, unbalanced by similar
cooperation with Pakistan could, in Pakistan’s perception, sow the seeds of
anti-Pakistani sentiment among substantial numbers of the next generation of
security decision-makers in Afghanistan.
Kabul also seems adamant that Pakistan needs to support the new government of
unity against the Taliban as the Western military presence whittles down they
seem to be regaining the military initiative in some areas of Afghanistan. This
could threaten the stability of the new government. A proposal of joint military
may be materialized in order to fight the menace where as Pakistan already has
floated an offer to train the Afghan military.
The Pakistani state has showed some willingness to disrupt sanctuaries of some
Afghan-centric militants in the North Waziristan operation, indicating that old
policies are subject to a paradigm shift. The real proof of changed policies and
intentions will lie in the state here using its leverage to bring the Afghan
Taliban back to the negotiating table. It can only be hoped that quiet
diplomacy, bilateral and also international, will produce results soon rather
than allow events to overtake opportunities. In at least one way, events have
already complicated opportunities and the bilateral relationship: the militancy
threat radiating into Pakistan from Afghanistan.
It’s noteworthy that President Ghani right after assuming the office cancelled
arm deals Afghanistan signed with India that alarmed the Indian hawks in media
and defence institutions. The experts prognosticate it as an Indian debacle for
what it has been contriving with Pakistan’s western neighbor since more than
last decade went in vain with a single visit of President Ghani to Pakistan. The
gesture indicates the future outline of Afghan foreign policy towards the
region. It must also immediately restrain the activities of Indian Consulates in
Jalalabad and other cities so that the militant activities must be curbed in
Balochistan. Without such bold gestures, security cooperation, better border
management and joint efforts to curb cross-border movement of militants, the
problem of Pakistan-centric militants seeking sanctuary in Afghanistan will only
grow and make cooperation on the original problem, the Afghan Taliban, that much
more difficult. Which is why President Ghani’s accommodating and conciliatory
language on Pakistan is all the more important – a reset in ties is needed to
allow for ties to stabilise. The long-term vision articulated by both sides of a
region that is a trading hub and economic corridor is the right one. But
security will have to be addressed quickly. Without security there will be no
stability and without stability, national potential will not be realised.
In the past Pakistan and Afghanistan, despite being allies in the war on terror
have accused each other of fomenting terrorist attacks. In this context the
request for help by the Afghan President for managing the porous border between
the two countries is of great significance as the ability of the two countries
to check terrorism through a collaborative effort could go a long way in
establishing peace in both countries and thus build strong economic ties.
Pakistan also reiterated its stance to back an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned
process of reconciliation in Afghanistan and of supporting the efforts of the
democratic Afghan government in this regard. There are no two opinions on the
fact that peace in Afghanistan and elimination of terrorism from the region are
absolutely necessary in achieving regional connectivity and shared economic
prosperity. That also makes it imperative and inevitable for the two countries
to work together in overcoming the obstacles they face.