Money supply effect on inflation in case of Pakistan

(Mawara, Faisalabad)

Pakistan is a state which faces many difficulties to become a developed economy. There are several issues to the economy of Pakistan to become a developing country, issues like unemployment, poverty, political instability, high inflation and terrorism. A major issue in Pakistan economy is inflation, which is tackled by the monetary policy of state bank.

Money is a gadget which is used as a medium of exchange, an economic good and an economic calculation. Money is issued by a central bank of a country. Money has a strong influence on the economic condition in any county.

The Central bank of any country has the power to issue and control money and its supply. The supply of money and demand of money is equal it create equilibrium in the economy. A surplus of money supply in the economy creates inflation. Inflation is the general rise in the prices of the goods in the economy. However, if the money supply decrease from its demand creates instability, to avoid this situation central bank use monetary policy. The Central bank uses tight monetary policy, reducing the growth rate in the money supply, in an attempt to control inflation or economic growth. While Expansionary monetary policy increases the growth rate of the money supply in an attempt to increase real GDP growth and reduce unemployment.
 
Monetary policy is an effective tool to control the inflation. It is used to control the persistent rise in the inflation through tight policy. In 2014 SBP (state bank of Pakistan) imposed tight policy to control the inflation, however, it is not helpful to control the rise in prices (Khan., et al 2014). CPI inflation decelerated to 1.7 percent in August 2015 from 7.0 percent in August 2014. Average CPI inflation decreased to 3.6 percent in August 2015 from 8.4 percent in August 2014 (SBP, 2015).

Foreign direct investment was identified as a medium in order to acquire skills, knowledge, technologies and to internationalize business and at the same time to reduce debts. Supplies of money control a Central bank to increase an economic growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) occasionally increases the supply of money, which destabilize the economy. Average FDI in Pakistan was 2623.93 USD Million from 2010 until 2015. Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan increased by 2677.90 USD Million in 2015. (Trading economic, 2010-2015). FDI has a negative relationship with inflation, while positive relationship economic growth.

“Excess of anything is bad”. Monetary policy is an effective tool of the State bank of Pakistan. The current situation of the Pakistan economy needs the tight policy to control the inflation. Foreign direct investment (FDI) whether to increase the capital flow in the economy, reduce unemployment. A reduction in unemployment increases the economic growth. Pakistan should get out of ‘survival’ to ‘recovery’ mode, and macroeconomic policies should not only focus on reducing the budget deficit. Policies should be supportive for growth and employment. The developmental role of monetary and fiscal policy will need to be strengthened. The government should not use monetary policy just as a mean for controlling inflation. Instead, the use of this powerful instrument should be to influence both price and volume of credit to achieve its developmental objectives.

Mawara
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