With Nawaz Sharif likely to
form the Govt in Pakistan, the expectations of Indians have risen from his Govt
in improving relations with India as he had expressed his intentions to this
effect during his interviews to some of Indian journalists during his elections
campaign.
India cannot expect much in the short-term with Nawaz Sharif taking reins of
power in Pakistan. His priorities will be to manage a coalition Govt , control
the jehadis and fundamentalists to bring the confidence of investors back in
Pakistan’s ailing economy. Once these are in place, the army is likely to fall
in line with civilian Govt’s thinking. That will be the time when Nawaz could
move a step further in improving Pak’s relations with India. Though this could
be a broad road-map for the new Govt. the improvement in relations with India
will be possible only if Pak military establishment is willing to listen to the
Civilian Govt. That is going to be a herculean task as the Pak military’s morale
is built on anti-India rhetoric. Military establishment is unable to forget
their defeat in the two wars they fought with India and separation of
Bangladesh. Aligning Military bosses’ mind-set with that of political thinking
in today’s geo-political reality, is going to be the biggest challenge for the
new Govt for improving Indo-Pak relations.
So, in the near-term India cannot expect any improvement in relations from Pak.
The least which could be expected from Pak in the short-term is, not letting the
relations with India go worst.
General Pervez Musharraf is likely to be in deep-shit as he was instrumental in
Nawaz Sharif’s exile from Pakistan. With Nawaz coming to power, Musharraf’s
political career and ambitions are finished now and it is very likely that he
will face the charges of treason and spend rest of his life in Jail.
Relations with Afghanistan are not likely to be the immediate priority except on
Afghanistan Taliban front because that affects Pakistan’s internal affairs also.
Alignment with US in its war against terrorism on Afghanistan and Af-Pak border
cannot be ignored by the new Govt though it would be a very sensitive issue in
the light of local fundamentalists and Pak Taliban not in favor of supporting
US. It will have to walk a tight rope on this issue.