Introduction
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) emerged from the United Nations (UN)
Millennium Declaration in 2000, and are arguably the most politically important
pact ever made for international development . They identify specific
development priorities across a very broad range, including poverty, education,
gender health, environment, and international partnerships. These goals have
substantially shaped development dialogue around the world. Some development
agencies judge all their activities on the contributions to achievement of the
MDGs .
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) represent an unprecedented global
consensus. The goals cover almost all malaises that are affecting humanity. The
goals are
1. Eradicating extreme poverty and hunger,
2. Achieving universal primary education,
3. Promoting gender equality and empowering women,
4. Reducing child mortality rates,
5. Improving maternal health,
6. Combating HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases,
7. Ensuring environmental sustainability, and
8. Developing a global partnership for development.
The MDGs are also important for providing general framework for channelizing the
public sector development efforts. Governments of both the developed and under
developed countries have made certain commitments in the Millennium Declaration
in order to achieve the goals with in given time frame. The developed countries
promised to enhance their contribution up to 0.7 per cent of their GDPs . The G8
Finance Ministers agreed in June 2005 to provide enough funds to the World Bank,
the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the African Development Bank (AFDB)
to cancel an additional $40 to $55 billion in debt owed by members of the
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) to allow impoverished countries to
channel the resources saved from the forgiven debt to social programs for
improving health, education and poverty.
Second MDG envisages the achievement of universal primary education as a goal to
be achieved till 2015. Government of Pakistan has committed to allocate 7% share
of its GDP in order to achieve the said target .
AJK government is a small administrative unit under overall sovereignty of
Pakistan. It has a total area of 13297 sq kilometers with a population of about
3.8 million. The geography is mountainous and hilly. The state’s economy is
based on subsistence agriculture, livestock, mining, tourism, and sale of
electrical power. The state depends on Pakistan for its outlet to the rest of
the world. Density of population per kilometers in the state is 298 . The
general education system in the state is structured, as in Pakistan, into
pre-school (02 years), primary level (05 years), Middle level (03 years),
Secondary level (02 years) and higher secondary (02 years).
Aim
The aim of the paper is to analyze the progress on Millennium Development Goal-2
in order to find the factors hindering progress and suggest policy measures for
improvement.
1. Whether achievement of universal primary education without gender disparity
will be possible to achieve in AJK?
2. What were the factors which resulted in the under achievement of this MDG?
3. What should be the way forward?
Scope of Study
Millennium Development goals address almost all the malaises which are affecting
humanity especially the under developed world. Present paper, however, is only
focused at second millennium development goal. The paper only analyzes the
progress made by the education department of the government of the state of Azad
Jammu and Kashmir in realizing these targets. This goal envisages the
achievement of universal primary education as a target to be achieved by all the
countries of the world till 2015. This achievement will be reflected through
indicators i.e. 100% NER and 100% survival rate through out primary education.
Third indicator is achieving 88% of literacy rate for the population for the age
group 10 and above. The paper will focus on evaluating the possibilities of
achievements of these goals in AJK within the ambit of Pakistan.
Research Methodology
The paper has used a mix of both the Qualitative & Quantitative methods to
investigate the subject. In terms of data both primary and secondary data have
been used. In order to collect the primary data different offices of AJK
government especially education department were visited. The list of officers
interviewed is attached as annexure A.
Interviews were held with officers and staff of the department in their offices.
Some local schools are also visited. A survey has also been conducted. The focus
of the questionnaire was to ascertain the knowledge of the officials of the
department (the implementers) with regard to MDGs. Moreover, questions regarding
progress and reasons of under achievement were also included. The questions were
asked to assess the level of enrollment, survival, reasons for drop outs, role
of government, teachers and parents to address reasons for non-enrollment and
drop outs. The target group for the survey included officials of the education
department and teachers who have first hand knowledge of the issue. The
questionnaire used is attached as annex B.
Secondary data has been collected from Planning and Development Department,
Education Department and Finance Department.
Literature review included research articles and reports by different local,
national and international organization. Most of the literature was downloaded
from the web sources.
Implications of the aim-limitations
The study is a time bound research effort conditioned by the resource
constraints. The available data is contradictory in nature from all sources
indicated, because in AJK the departments do not maintain accurate
data/statistics, due to lack of accurate monitoring by respective departments.
Analysis
A: Whether achievement of universal primary education without gender disparity
will be possible to achieve in AJK and if not why?
The second Millennium Development Goal envisages the universalization of primary
education for all sexes and communities without any disparities as a target to
be achieved by 2015. In Azad Jammu & Kashmir following three targets were set
under the goal.
a) To achieve 100 per cent Net Enrolment Rate at primary level
b) To achieve 100 per cent completion /survival rate for 1 grade to 5
c) To raise Literacy rate to 88% for population aged 10 years and above
In order to assess progress on these goals following three indicators have been
utilized.
Indicator 1: Percentage of Net Enrolment Rate in primary education
Indicator 2: Percentage of students who complete primary education (Grade 1-5)
Indicator 3: literacy rate of population aged 10 year and above
Progress on all the above mentioned indicators is discussed below.
Indicator 1: Net Enrolment Ratio in Primary Education
Target is to achieve of 100 % net enrollment rate for primary education. Net
enrollment rate for the year 2010-2011 for the AJK and Pakistan is given in the
following table .
Indicator Regions 2001/02 2005/06 2011/12 Targets 2015
Net primary
enrolment ratio
(percent) Pakistan 42 53 58 100
AJK 74 88 94 100
NER for AJK is 94% which is far ahead of the national average rate (58%). But
recently this rate of increase has started slowing down as shown by the data
table. For the first duration (2001-02 – 2005-06), the NER has increased by 2.8
per cent per annum. For the second duration (2005-06 – 2011-2012), the NER has
increased by 1.00 per cent per annum. With this rate of increase NER in 2015
will be 97%.
Above discussed figures show that AJK is comparatively well in terms of progress
on first indicator. But these figures can be challenged on many counts. For
example the figures for Pakistan are not in consonance with the Economic Survey
of Pakistan (2010-2011). According to the Economic Survey NER in Pakistan is 56%
in 2010-2011 while here they are reflected as 58% . The Figures for AJK are also
not plausible.
According to the Academy of Education Planning and Management (AEPAM) Islamabad,
the net primary enrollment in AJK was 45 percent in 2001-02; it rose up to 57%
in 2005-06 and then fell down to 52 percent in 2010-11 .
According to data compiled and published by the education department itself the
figure of 94% NER does not seem correct. The following table shows the number of
total students enrolled in public sector government schools at primary level.
Net Enrolment at Primary Level for AJ&K from 2000-11
Year Urban Rural Total
Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total
2000-01 6376 8070 14446 117480 118795 236275 123856 126865 250721
2001-02 8706 9963 18669 156503 140889 297392 165209 150852 316061
2002-03 8942 9356 18298 157312 141392 298704 166254 150748 317002
2003-04 8784 10035 18819 159468 142665 302133 168252 152700 320952
2004-05 4221 5396 9617 127388 123950 251338 131609 129346 260955
2005-06 4080 4955 9035 133502 129827 263329 137582 134782 272364
2006-07 5322 5378 10700 115267 120687 235954 120589 126065 246654
2007-08 5483 6646 12129 114309 121036 235345 119792 127682 247474
2008-09 5293 5509 10802 106525 114710 221235 111818 120219 232037
2009-10 4955 5904 10859 107401 112870 220271 112356 118774 231130
2010-11 5479 6371 11850 108565 115033 223598 114044 121404 235448
According to above table, total number of students enrolled in all the schools
of AJK at primary level was in 250721 in 2000-01 and total number of students
enrolled in schools at same level is 235448 in 2010-2011. This means that there
is a decrease of 15273 students. Interestingly the net enrolment rate claimed by
the education department in 2000-01 is 74% and NER claimed in 2010-2011 is 94%
which means that there is an increase of 20% in NER. The data does not support
the claim made by the department. This also reflects on our lethargic
methodologies in maintaining accurate statistics of all kinds.
Azad Jammu and Kashmir Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (AJK MICS 2007-08)
conducted by AJK Planning and Development Department in collaboration with
Federal Bureau of Statistics and UNICEF (published in August 2009) also do not
support the claim of the department. According to the report net intake rate in
primary education in AJK is about 35%. This survey was conducted in 2007-2008
and department data claims that NER in 2005-06 was 88%.
Above analysis clearly establishes the non-reliability of data. One way to
explain the yawing gap between 56% NER (AEPAM) and 94% NER (departmental) is the
number of students enrolled in private schools. Secretary Education pointed out
that according to an assessment that about 30% population and student are being
catered by the private schools. If this 30% is added to the AEPAM the gap closes
down considerably. But it is not clear whether AEPAM data does not include
private students.
This confusion is clarified by using data from another source i.e. ASER Report
2011 . According to AESR about thirty-nine percent of the students at primary
level are enrolled in the private school. The report points out that 1.1 per
cent of students are enrolled in madrasahs. This fact can explain the gap in the
data. Details of AESR 2011 data are reproduced below.
School Enrollment and out of School children in AJ&K
Age Group Percentage of children in different type of schools Out of Schools
Total
Govt. Pvt. Madrasah Others Never Enrolled Drop out
6-10 Yrs 56.2 33.8 1.1 0.3 7.8 0.8 100
11-13 64.4 26.8 1.3 0.1 4.9 2.6 100
14-16 58.5 22.5 1.4 0.3 8.4 8.9 100
6-16 58.8 29.5 1.2 0.2 7.2 3.1 100
Total 89.7 10.3 100
According to the above data NER at the primary level (age group 06-11) 91.4%.
This seems to be more plausible figure in the light of detailed distributions as
to students enrolled in public sector schools, private schools, madrasahs etc.
The percentage of children who are out of the school is 8.6%.
Since MDGs aim to eliminate gender disparities, sex segregation of these NER
figures is also need to be looked into. According to data provided by the
department at present the gross enrolment rate at primary level is 95% for boys
and 88% for girls (between the ages of 5-9 years).
Indicator 2: Percentage of students who complete primary education
The MDGs are not concerned only with the enrollment but also the completion of
primary education. The survival rate up to completion level (Grade 1-5) is shown
in following data table.
Indicators Regions 2001/2 2005/6 2011/12 Targets 2015
Completion/
survival rate Grade
1 to 5 (percent) Pakistan 57.3 72.1 75 100
AJK 91 94.4 92.6 100
According to the data the completion rate for AJK is 92.6% which is above
national average rate of 75%. But rate of percentage increase per annum during
first duration (2001-02 – 2005-06) is very minimal (0.68). More alarming is the
decreasing trend for the next duration. For this duration (2005-06 – 2011-12)
the percentage has decreased to 92.6% from 94.4 %.
According to the MICS data (2007-08), at the moment of the survey, only 45% of
the children of primary completion age (9 Years) were attending the last grade
of primary education in public sector schools of AJK. The discrepancy in the
data can again be explained by inclusion of 30% share from the private schools.
The survival rate in private schools may be better than the public schools due
to a number of factors as paying capacity of the parents. Data from AESR 2011
supports the analysis. The report shows that 26% of children in the age group
between 11-13 years are in private schools.
Academy of Education Planning & Management Islamabad in its report EFA Pakistan
2010-11 -Where we stand, has also supported the claim about the survival rate
from grade 1 to Grade 5. The report presented the following data about primary
school completion rate from 2001 to 2010-11 in AJ&K.
AJ&K Primary Completion/Survival Rate trend to Grade 5
(Progress From 2001-02 to 2010-11)
Year Male Female Total GPI
2001-02 103.8% 98.7% 101.4% 0.95
2005-06 94.1% 94.3% 94.1% 1.00
2010-11 94.4% 90.9% 92.6% 0.96
The data portrays that after achieving the set goals (100% survival rate) in
2001-2002, there is a negative trend in survival rate by 0.9% per annum.
In order to achieve universal survival rate controlling drop out rate is also
very important. According to AESR 2011, 7.8 % children of the primary school
(6-10) age never go to the school and a further 0.8% drop out from school in the
age group of 06-10 years. This drop out rate increases as the age and grades
move higher. Percentage of drop outs after completion of primary education,
according to the report, is 2.6.
Indicator 3: literacy rate of population aged 10 year and above
The third indicator to assess progress on targets set under MDG 2 is to increase
literacy rate of 10 + age group to the level of 88%. Literacy, here, is defined
as the ability to read a newspaper and write a simple letter. The current
literacy rate in AJ&K (67%) is higher than the national average, which is 60% .
The literacy rate in AJ&K has shown a gradual but steady increase over the last
20 years. However achieving the national MDG target of 88% literacy in 2015 will
not be possible at this pace of progress. The data shown in the following table
illustrates the trend over the period.
LITERACY RATE TREND OF POPULATION IN PAKISTAN AND AJK
Region 1990-91 2001-02 2005-06 2010-11 Target on 2015
Pakistan 41 % 45% 51.7 % 60 % 88 %
AJ&K 53 % 58% 60.33% 67 % 88 %
According to the data the literacy rate in AJK has increased on the average rate
of 0.7% per annum between the period from 1990-91 to 2010-2011. At this rate of
increase the literacy rate in 2015 will be 69.8% which is fairly lower then the
MDG-2 target.
The Directorate of Education (planning) has projected the literacy rate of AJ&K
on the basis of data of 1998 census.
Trend in Literacy Rates (10+ Years) in AJ&K (Percentage)
Year Total
Male Female Total
1998 70.52 40.46 55.47
2000 72.14 42.8 57.09
2005 75.38 45.35 60.33
2010 77.50 54.10 65.80
2012 78.15 56.32 67.02
This rate of literacy is widely recognized and quoted. However Azad Jammu &
Kashmir Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2007-08) had also assessed the
literacy of 10 + aged group in AJ&K. District wise MIST finding is presented in
the following table.
Literacy Rate (Age 10+) by District (Percentage)
S. No District Adult Literacy Rate No. of Population
(10+ Years) in 1000
1 Bagh 79.40 586
2 Bhimber 90.60 500
3 Kotli 81.60 958
4 Mirpur 88.20 496
5 Muzaffarabad 74.00 1016
6 Neelum 59.10 189
7 Poonch 89.50 706
8 Sudhnoti 85.10 364
On the basis of the above data collected during the survey, average literacy
rate in AJK comes to 80.9% in 2007-08 which is higher than the official figures.
This again highlights the issue of non-availability of authentic data and
importance of having such data for effective planning.
B: Analysis for not achieving the AIM
The discussion above makes it clear that despite having better indicators than
the national indicators, AJK will not be able to achieve 100% success in all the
three indicators. Following are some of the factors which are hindering the
achievement of targets.
1) Education is not a priority area in Pakistan
The fact is reflected by pattern of resource allocation for education in terms
of percentage of GDP. Pakistan has the lowest allocation for education in South
Asia which is 2% of GDP in 2009-10. Most interestingly allocation for education
shows a decreasing trend for the duration 2006-10.
But in AJK situation is different. Expenditure on education in AJK makes a major
portion (28.14% ) of the total budget of AJK. However 99% of this money goes to
pay and allowances and one per cent is left for the operational expenditures. On
the other hand share in developmental budget is only 09%. According to Chief
Economist of AJK, out of this developmental budget only 1.15% is contributed for
primary education. Whereas percentage shares of other sectors middle, secondary,
higher education are 09.25, 23.73, and 9.46 respectively. For current financial
year share allocated for primary education amounts to 10.234 million rupees
only. This shows that presently primary education is not a priority area in AJK.
Under the NEP the government of Pakistan had committed to increase the share of
allocation for education to 07% of GDP. The allocation was 2.24% in 2001-02
after which it is showing a decreasing trend. Present year it is 2.00% of the
GDP. Since AJK is dependent on Pakistan in financial matters any increase and
decrease in financial allocation have direct bearing on it.
2) Non availability of special administrative set up
In order to co-ordinate the realization of important task like realization of
universal primary education there should have been a special cell in education
department to co-ordinate the activities with regard to MDGs, create awareness
and arrange periodic assessment of progress on goals and to make policy
adjustments according to the feedback from the field. During the interviews it
came up that there is no such cell in Education Department. The fact again
reflects on priority pattern.
3) International factors
Commitments made by the international community were of critical importance for
realization of these goals. Especially resource commitments were very important.
The committed level of international aid by the developed countries was 0.7% of
GDPs of the developed countries. Although developed countries' aid for achieving
the MDGs has been rising over recent years, the target of 0.7% was never
achieved.
Moreover this aid has never been free of strings and has not been MDGs specific.
More than half the aid is diverted towards debt relief owed by poor countries,
with much of the remaining aid money going towards natural disaster relief and
military aid which do not further development. Moreover, AJK is also relying on
the international donors for their assistance in the education sector in
achieving various universal targets but the problem is that most of the donors
take away major chunk of the financial assistance in the shape of heavily paid
consultancies and various equipments which remain shelved throughout.
4) Non-compliance with the targets set in NEP 2009
The NEP 2009 proposes many steps to be taken to achieve the millennium
development goals. Many of these steps are still awaiting action both in sectors
of access and equity, and governance, quality and relevance. One of the major
objectives to launch National Education Policy 2009 is to implement Pakistan’s
new international commitments to MDGs and Dakar Framework (EFA).
Some of important factors in access and equity sector which could have helped in
progress towards goals are still not taken are:
1) Establishment of Apna Ghar residential schools.
2) Making education free
3) Legislation for compulsory primary education.
In the governance and quality sector following important decisions are awaiting
action.
1) Enhancing allocation for education to 7% of GDP
2) Establishment of organization to co-ordinate between federal and provincial
governments etc.
5) Awareness and Realization of importance of the MDGs
Awareness level about the MDGs and targets set under them for education
department is very low especially in lower echelons. At managerial level there
seems to be very strong perception in educational authorities in AJK that they
have achieved much as compared to the country. Instead of comparing the
performance against the goals set for the 2015, they judge their performance in
relation to country and other provinces. This gives rise to kind of complacency
in the department. Survey conducted shows that only 6.66% respondents from
education department know about the MDGs.
6) Poverty
Poverty is important factor for all the indicators: enrollment, survival and
literacy rate. There is a marked difference in literacy by household’s wealth
status, ranging from 42% among population aged 15 years and more living in the
poorest households to 75% among adult population living in the richest
households . Similarly, literacy rates among population 10 years and above vary
from 47 in the lowest wealth quintile up to 78% in the highest wealth quintile .
The lowest percentage of children attending the last Grade of the primary
education is in the lowest wealth quintile .
Poverty has also emerged as the most important factor during the survey in
relation to low NER (73%) and Drop outs (86 %).
7) Access
The total area of AJ&K is 5134 Sq. Miles and the total number of schools
offering primary education, according to the Director Planning, is about 6000.
In this way we have more than one school per sq. mile area approximately. The
number of schools existing in AJ&K is given in below mention table;
Educational Institutions by Level and Gender in AJK
Level Female Male Total
1. Mosque school 0 1498 1498
2. Primary 1866 824 2690
3. Middle 479 515 994
4. High 319 364 683
5. Higher Secondary 32 19 51
6. Village Workshop 10 10
7. Literacy Centre 2 2
8. Industrial School 5 5
9. Intermediate College 36 43 79
10. Degree College 22 22 44
11. Postgraduate College 5 7 12
12. College of Education 1 1 2
13. Elementary Colleges 5 5 10
14. Education Extension Centre 1 1
15. Agro-Tech Teachers Training Centre 1 1
Total 2772 3310 6082
However there is no mechanism to give access to education to nomadic communities
who move in and out of area. Perusal of above data table shows that it also
includes colleges which are not imparting primary education. Gender based
non-parity is also apparent from the data. The number of female schools is far
less than the male schools.
8) Non-friendly environment at school
It is very important to have student friendly environment at the school to boast
NER and to discourage drop outs. Steps envisioned in the NEP to create friendly
environment at primary level schools were recruitment of female teachers at
primary level, provision of basic facilities, change in teacher attitude through
training and abolition of corporal punishment etc. But these steps have not been
taken so far. Non- friendly environment at school has emerged as a very strong
reason for low enrollment and drop outs. Survey reveals that 80% of respondents
have identified teacher attitude as a reason for drop outs.
9) Lack of Innovation
Early Childhood Education (ECE), Non-Formal Schools (NFS), Adult Literacy
Centers (ALC), Child Friendly Schools (CFS) and Community Based Schools/ Model
Schools (CBS/ CMS) are also important inevitable requirement for bringing 100%
school age children in schools and making population 100% literate.
Non-availability of ECE education facility and child friendly environments in
public sector schools is the main cause of day to day decrease in the
enrollment.
10) Absence of Monitoring and Evaluation
There is strong perception that unrecorded absenteeism is prevalent in education
department especially in schools in remote areas is more intense. This may be
one of the reasons of low enrollment and literacy rate in remote areas.
Conclusions
1) On the basis of above analysis it can be concluded that all the three targets
set under the second Millennium Development Goal i.e. NER, survival rate and
literacy rate for 10 + age group set under MDG-2 will not be achieved by 2015.
2) Availability of reliable data is a grave issue in AJK. Research and
Development activities are almost non-existent. In absence of data projected
figures are used which do not reflect real picture. Education sector lacks
necessary finances to embark upon any initiative. The fact is reflected in
decreasing allocation at national level. Allocation in AJK although seem to be
high but almost all the money is used for payment of salaries and perks. This
leaves virtually no finances available for important mechanism like research and
improvement.
3) Political will to achieve the goals seems low which is reflected in the facts
like non-compliance to NEP 2009. Under the 18th amendment the State is
constitutionally mandated to provide free and compulsory education to the
children between 05-16 years.
Recommendations
1. Education Department should create a cell, at the state and district level,
to co-ordinate efforts for achievement of targets set under Millennium
Development Goal. Proposed cell may also undertake to generate reliable and
consistent data.
2. To meet the literacy targets non-formal and innovative mechanism like adult
literacy centers and early childhood care centers should be established in areas
with minimum literacy rate.
3. The Federal Government and the State Government should correspondingly,
allocate and progressively enhance the committed allocation of GDP to the
desired level.
4. Education Department must tap domestic resources through public private
partnerships for creating an enabling environment in which civil society
organizations will undertake access and quality initiatives for education.
Participation of the civil society organizations at all levels in planning,
implementation and monitoring should be ensured.
5. International agencies and donor community should work with national
governments to devise procedures to make use of aid in education sector more
transparent and string free.
Bibliography
1. Government of AJK, “AJK at a Glance 2010-11”, Planning and Development
Department, Muzaffarabad.
2. Government of Pakistan, “EFA Goals: Where Do We Stand 2010” ,Ministry of
Education, Academy of Educational Planning and Management (AEPAM) Islamabad,
Pakistan, https://www.aepam.edu.pk/.
3. Planning Commission of Pakistan,” Pakistan Millennium Development Goals
Report 2010 “ ,https://www.pc.gov.pk/publications/mdgs-pak2010/Chap-3.pdf,
accessed 29/12/12
4. Government of Pakistan, “National Education Policy 2009” , Ministry of
Education, https://www.pakdocs.com/pakistan-national-education-policy-2009/
5. Jeff Wagge et al 2010, “The millennium Development goals: a cross-sectoral
analysis and principles for Goal setting after 2015” , https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2810%2961196-/fulltext
6. Needs Assessment Report On Literacy Initiative for Empowerment (Pakistan) by
Ministry of Education Federal
7. PSDP 2012-13, P&D D, AJK
8. Government of AJK, “Education statistics of 2010-2011 of AJK”, Education
Department Muzaffarabad.
9. https://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_12/10-Education.pdf
10. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2810%2961196-8/fulltext
11. https://www.unmillenniumproject.org/press/07.htm
Annexure “A”
LIST OF OFFICERS INTERVIEWED
Sr.# Name of Officers Date of Interview
01 Muhammad Sadiq Dar, Secretar education 26/12/2012
02 Chaudhry Muhammad Khalil,Chief Economist, P&DD 26/12/2012
03 Raja Akhlaq Hussain Khan. A.S, EDU 26/12/2012
04 Muhammad Shamoon Hashmi, Chief P&DD 26/12/2012
05 Abdul Hameed,Senior Chief Development,FD 26/12/2012
06 Muhammad Muqbool Abbassi,Direcor education planning 26/12/2012
07 Zahoor Ahmed, Direcotr EMIS, EDU 26/12/2012
08 Raja Zafar Iqbal, Deputy Direcor colleges 25/12/2012