China: The future of the World

(Dr. Syed Mehboob, Karachi)

China is a country in East Asia. It is the world’s most populous country, with a population of around 1.4 billion, covering about 9.6 million square kilometers. It is the world’s third largest state by area.

China is the factory of the world. In 1970 its global production contribution was only 3% now it is 25%, it is exporting to about 200 countries and producing about 80% of world’s air conditioners , 70 % mobiles , 60% shoes, 74% solar sales , 60 % cement, 50% coal, 45% ship building, 50% steel, is being produced by just one country “ CHINA”. It is also astonishing that about 50% apples are produced by China while USA which is second in rank only produces 7 % apples of the world. It is now the world’s largest economy with GDP of $ 30.18 trillion (PPP). It is also the largest exporter of the world with $ 2.2 trillion export. It is surprising that 90% American flags are also manufactured by China. It is normally thought that China can only produce cheap goods but people are highly surprised when they are told that 60% of the most branded luxurious items are produced in China. In 1970s it was poorer than African countries. In 1978 its per capita was just $ 155 dollars while it jumped to $ 7,590 which is 49 times increase. It lifted more than 800 million people from poverty. Its mass production policies destroyed the price structure of most of the world’s famous companies and countries. It has competitive edge over many countries due to its mass scale production. Its workforce is highly trained, efficient, active, vibrant and experienced. China is the largest economy in the world by PPP since 2014, the world’s second largest economy by nominal GDP since 2010, and the largest economy in Eurasia. Since the introduction of economic reforms in 1978, China’s economy has been the world’s fastest growing major economy, with annual growth rate consistently above 10%. According to the World Bank China’s GDP grew $ 150 billion in 1978 to US$ 12.24 trillion by 2017. China also recorded the fastest rise in GDP per capita in the world from 1960 to 2018. China is the largest exporter and second largest importer of the world after America. One of the world’s foremost infrastructural giants China has the world’s largest bullet train network, the most super tall skyscrapers in the world. China borders with 14 countries, more than any other country except Russia.

China borders with Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar (Burma) in South East Asia, India, Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in south Asia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia and Russia, Malaysia and North Korea in Inner Asia and North East Asia. China shares Maritime boundaries with South Korea. China is the largest manufacturer of the world, 2nd high tech manufacturing since 2012, it is the second largest retail market in the world, it leads world in e commerce accounting 50% of the global market in the world. It is also world leader in the electric vehicles, manufacturing and buying half of the entire plug in electric cars in the world. China has 174 GW of installed solar capacity by the end of 2018, which amounts more than 40% of the global solar capacity. As of 2018 China was first in the world in total number of billionaire and second in millionaires. There were about 658 billionaires, 3.5 million millionaires. China has higher percentage of people as 100 Chinese are 10% of the wealthiest individuals in the world. China has the world’s largest middle income population.

China became the world’s largest trading nation in 2013 as measured by the sum of imports and exports; it is also the world’s largest commodity importer about 45% of Maritime’s dry bulk market. By 2016 China was the largest trading partner of 124 countries. It is the largest trading partner of ASEAN comprising 15.2 % of ASEAN’s total trade. In 2020, China became the largest trading partner of the European Union for goods, having the total volume of US$ 700 billion. China along with ASEAN, Japan, South Korea , Australia and New Zealand , is a member of the Regional Compressive Economic Partnership , the world’s largest free-trade area covering 30% of the world’s population and economic output. Chinese African trade volume crossed US$ 210 billion having grown more than 20 times over two decades. According to Madison Condon, “China finances more infrastructure projects in African than the World Bank providing low interest loans to African countries. China is the largest trading partner with Brazil, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, Argentina etc. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expended significantly over the last five years and as of April 2020, includes 138 countries and 30 international organizations. Maritime Silk Road is another significant initiative which connects to East Africa, Europe and other areas and investment in Gwadar, Kuantan, Hambantota, Piraeus and Trieste.

China would be the largest economy in nominal GDP by 2028. It is the world’s largest manufacturing economy and exporter of goods. It is also the world’s fastest growing consumer market and second largest importer of goods. China has four of the world’s top ten most competitive financial centers and three of the world’s ten largest stock exchanges both by market capitalization and by trade volume. China is the largest recipient of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as of 2020 receiving inflow of US$ 163 billion. It has the second largest outward foreign direct investment at US$ 136.91 billion for 2019 alone. According to the 2019 Global Wealth Report by Credit Suisse Group (CSG) China surpassed the USA in the wealth of the top ten percent of the world’s population. China has world’s largest foreign reserves worth US$ 3,100 billion and if the foreign assets of China’s state owned commercial banks are included, the value of China’s reserves rises to nearly US$ 4,000 billion. With about 778 million workers, the Chinese labour force was the world’s largest as of 2020. China ranks number one in patents, utility models, trademarks, industrial designs and creative goods exports. It also has two Shenzhen-Hong Kong–Guangzhou and Beijing in the 2nd and 3rd spots respectively of the global five sciences and technology clusters, which is more than any other country. As of March 2022, China has over 500 million 5G users and 1.45 million base stations installed.

ECONOMY
Population : 1.394 billion
GDP Nominal : US$ 19,910 billion (2022)
GDP (PPP) : $ 30,180 billion ( 2022)
GDP rank : 2nd nominal and 1st PPP (2022)
GDP per Capita : $ 14,096 Nominal ( 2022)
: $ 21,364 PPP (2022)

GDP Growth
Year Growth %
2020 2.3
2021 8.1
2022 4.3
2023 5.2 ( forecast)

GDP by sector
Sector % of GDP
Agriculture 7.9
Industry 40.5
Services 51.6

Exports : US$ 3,364 billion (2021)
Products % of total exports
Agricultural products 2.2
Fuel and mining products 2.4
Manufacturing products 74.3

Main Export partners : EU 17.2%USA 16.7%, ASEAN 12.83% Hong Kong 12.16% , Japan 5.9% , South Korea 4.37 % India 3.8%, Russia 2.64% Others 23.33%
Imports : US$ 2,687 billion (2021)
Products % of total imports
Agricultural products 7.5
Fuel and Mining products 21.3
Manufacturing Products 64.4

Import partners : EU 12.82% ASEAN 12.58 % , South Korea 9.58 % Japan 8.54% , Taiwan 8.32%, USA 7.24% , India 4.5% , Brazil 3.68% others 33.74 %
Pakistan and China have signed Free Trade Agreement

The Amending Protocol, also known as Phase-II of the CPFTA, intends to deepen trade relations between China and Pakistan through increasing liberalization of trade in goods, safeguarding mechanisms for its domestic industry, and facilitating inter-country balance of payments and electronic data exchange.

Most notably, the Protocol introduces a new tariff elimination schedule to widen mutual market access, amends rules of origin and trade remedies provisions, and adds a new chapter on customs cooperation.

In the 2017-2018 fiscal years, China-Pakistan trade volume totaled US$13.2 billion, accounting for 16.4 percent of Pakistan’s trade volume.

This round of revisions to the CPFTA expands and diversifies trade opportunities for business on both sides, while maintaining fair and equitable protection of local industry interests.

Reduced tariffs, wider market access
The protocol stipulates that the proportion of tariff lines with zero-tariff products between China and Pakistan will gradually increase from 35 percent to 75 percent in a period of 10 years as implemented by China, and 15 years by Pakistan.

There is a need to do serious efforts to increase Pakistan’s share in trade volume.

Dr. Syed Mehboob
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