Dar unveils Pakistan Economic Survey 2022-23

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar presented the economic survey for the fiscal year 2023 at a press conference in Islamabad.

Before presenting his government’s economic performance for the year, the minister went on a diatribe explaining the difficult condition in which the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) had inherited the economy.

He claimed that he had left Pakistan in a strong economic position in 2017, when he last served as the finance minister under Nawaz Sharif, saying that his topmost priority at this stage was ensuring macroeconomic stability.

According to documents shared by the minister, Pakistan achieved Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 0.29 percent for the outgoing fiscal year, missing the target of 5pc by a wide margin.

This paltry growth came on the back of 1.55pc, -2.94pc, and 0.86pc growth in the Agriculture, Industry, and Services sectors respectively, all three missing their targets comprehensively.

Most notable was the 2.94pc contraction in the industrial sector, against a target of 7.1pc growth.

 According to documents shared by the minister, Pakistan registered inflation of 28.2pc in the 11-month period from July 2022 to May 2023, against 11pc in the same period last year.

The government had targeted inflation at 11.5pc for FY2023, missing its target significantly because of a sharp depreciation of the rupee and global supply shocks resulting in pricey imports.

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax collection grew 16.1pc to Rs5637.9 billion from July to April against Rs4,855.8 billion in the year-ago period. The collection target for the 12-month period set by the government was Rs7,470bn.

The survey document shows that Pakistan’s exports declined by 9.9pc during July to March to $ 21bn compared to $23bn in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, imports during the same period amounted to $43.7bn compared to $58.9bn in the same period last year, reflecting a decline of 25.7pc. This reduction came primarily because of policy tightening and other administrative measures as the government sought to protect its depleting foreign exchange reserves.

As a result, the country’s trade deficit significantly shrank to 6pc of GDP, compared to 10.4pc from last year.

The current account balanced improved by 74.1pc, recording a deficit of $3.4bn during Jul-Mar FY2023, against a deficit of $13bn in the year-ago period.

This led to the current account deficit shrinking to 1pc of the GDP, compared to 4.7pc during the same period last year.

“The predominant factor behind this improvement was the 29.7pc decrease in the merchandise trade deficit on the back of substantial decline in import payments to $41.5 billion in Jul-Mar FY2023 from $ 52.7 billion last year,” the document notes.

The survey notes that the fiscal deficit was “contained” to 3.6pc of the GDP during the first nine months of the current fiscal year against 3.9pc of the GDP in the same period of last year.

This was achieved by “strictly following prudent expenditure management and an effective domestic resource mobilisation strategy”.