The political and military
leadership of Pakistan is absolutely clear about the importance of the China
Pakistan Energy Corridor (CPEC) vital for the development of the country as well
as the region. The Chief of Army Staff visited Balochistan on July 25 where he
was briefed about the prevailing law and order situation in the province. While
inaugurating a section of roads network being built by the Frontier Works
Organization, Gen Raheel Sharif reiterated that the strategic port of Gwadar and
the CPEC projects will be completed at all costs. “All the hurdles in the way of
the project will be removed”, he firmly declared.
No doubt, such an infrastructure development provides a sound basis for
Pakistan’s road to economic prosperity. Originally conceived during the
Musharraf regime – to connect Gwadar with Chinese Western province Xinjiang
through Karakoram Highway – it has now finally become a reality. During the
historic visit of Chinese President to Pakistan in April this year, a total of
51 MoUs (Memorandums of Understanding) worth $46billion were signed under the
master project of CPEC. It consists of a network of highways, railways and power
generation projects.
At strategic plane, the CPEC will accrue great dividends for China. It will
provide Chine direct access to the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, the Gulf
States and Africa. China is energy deficient to sustain its huge industry and
its 60% energy supplies pass through the Strait of Malacca and 80 percent of its
total supplies ultimately pass through South China Sea, the disputed Spartly
Islands.
With the US shifting its focus to Asia Pacific and its growing relationship with
India as a strategic partner to counter China in the region, the chances of sea
blockade of Strait of Malacca and South China Sea to coerce China to agree to
American terms can't be ruled out. Iran has also shown its interest to supply
gas to China through pipelines being laid under the umbrella of the CPEC. It
will help China in developing its neglected and under developed western region
and in further broadening the base of economy to help sustain its graph of
economic growth.
The infrastructure development in the Xinjiang province will also facilitate in
linking China to Central Asian States to tap their natural resources. Of course
$46billion lending for the project will also bring attractive business to the
Chinese banking sector. And last but not the least with the possession of Gwadar
Port rights for next 40 years China will make a strategic addition to the
"String of Pearls" in the Indian Ocean thereby reducing the American influence.
The CPEC is therefore a win-win project for China.
For Pakistan it will be a game-changer as well as fate-changer. Gwadar will be
developed into a mega seaport and a metropolitan attracting huge investments;
it's airport will also be upgraded to international standards. The western route
originating from Gwadar will essentially pass through the Baloch belt and will
bring great business opportunities and resultant economic prosperity to the
locals. Similarly, the central route will also pass through the southern Baloch
belt and rural Sindh connecting it with the National Highway at Ratodero. The
Railways and roads infrastructure from Karachi to Peshawar will also be
upgraded. With the local participation, the entire length of Gilgit-Baltistan
will also witness huge economic and social uplift.
More importantly, two third of the total package i.e. approximately $34billion
will be invested to generate much needed energy to bring Pakistan out of
blackouts and restart it's industry lying idle for the want of power . Inbuilt
in the project is the actualisation of Iran Pakistan Gas Pipeline stalled due to
lack of funding and pressure of US Government. All in all CPEC will generate a
huge economic activity in all the provinces including GB thereby contributing
towards economic growth and prosperity.
Now all of it is not very simple. There are local, regional and international
actors opposed to the very idea and will make all possible maneuvers to sabotage
and create hurdles in the execution of this mega project. Although the Pakistan
government was able to achieve a political consensus on the route, sequence and
priority of the infrastructural development, there are however, non-state actors
who can have divergent views and in collaboration with the regional and
international players can adversely affect the infrastructural development part
of the project.
In Balochistan it could be BLA, Jundullah, LeJ and TTP; in KPK it could be
remnants of the TTP and nationalist parties; In Sindh there are nationalist
parties who can create problems in case of any difference with the central
government; in southern Punjab there is a lingering threat of the Punjabi
Taliban; and in Gilgit-Baltistan the TTP can instigate and fuel sectarian
clashes to derail the project.
A series of terrorist acts in China’s Xinjiang province reportedly by the TTP
can also have serious repercussions on the project. India has expressed its
intentions openly by opposing the very idea as a part of the route passes
through the disputed territory of Jammu & Kashmir. Indian intelligence agency
RAW is already quite active in Balochistan in supporting anti state elements and
creating security situations in the province like Mastung and Hazara community
firing incidents to dispel foreign investment.
India is also opposed to development of Gwadar Seaport as it has invested
heavily in the adjoining Chabahar Port for easy access to Afghanistan without
passing through Pakistan. India is also aware of the strategic importance of the
route for China vis a vis the option of interdicting China's supplies through
Indian Ocean or Strait of Malacca. While the USA has similar agenda in
collaboration with India and wants to deny Gwadar Port to China. Therefore it
has been exercising its pull on successive Pakistani governments to hand over
Gwadar to the Singapore Port Authorities. America has also been opposed to the
Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline. So there are multifarious threats to the project.
The governments of China and Pakistan are quite aware of this multidimensional
opposition to the mega project. The start point i.e. Gwadar belt and the end
point i.e. Gilgit-Khunjerab area are the most vulnerable. There is an urgent
need to mobilize all available resources to create an environment conducive to
launching of the project. Security is the key to overall success of the CPEC.
Pakistan has therefore raised and equipped a dedicated force to provide security
and protection to the Chinese engineers and the workforce. Operation Zarb-e-Azb
has been successful in minimizing the threat of TTP in KPK as the military
leadership has hinted at extending the operation to Balochistan area in order to
eliminate the terrorists as well as separatists, and establish the writ of the
government.
It is also about time that the Government of Pakistan takes bold decision of
delinking Gilgit-Baltistan from Kashmir issue and formally declares it as its
fifth province. Simultaneously, Pakistan should gear up its diplomatic efforts
to convince the USA of the importance of the CPEC in the perceived development
of Pakistan. Beside equipping and training the law enforcement agencies (LAEs),
the local leadership and civil administration of the area will have to be made
responsible for both the protection of workforce and that of the infrastructure
as part of National Action Plan. To make it a success story, both the
intelligence agencies and LEAs will have to remain vigilant and extend the
perimeter of security to remove all the hurdles coming in the way of project.
(The author is defence analyst based in Islamabad)