The nuclear deal concluded
between Iran and P5+1 on 14 July at Vienna generated a mixed reaction both in
the US and its allies in the Middle East. Without going into technical details
of the agreement, it envisages Iran to shed away its enriched uranium and two
third of its centrifuges and allow access to IAEA including stationing of its
Inspectors in Iran. In return, Iran will get gradual relaxation in the UN/
unilateral sanctions imposed by U.S. and access to its frozen assets since
Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. The deal will become effective only after it
is ratified by the US Congress and Iranian Supreme Leader. While the European
Powers, Russia and China are quite satisfied with the thoroughly negotiated
deal, the U.S. Lawmakers are divided on the issues and may force President Obama
to use his veto power to ratify the deal. On the other hand there are positive
signals from the Iranian supreme leader to go ahead with the agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Mr. Netanyahu is the most staunch opponent of the deal
and has termed it as a "historic mistake". He is pursuing the strong Jewish
lobby in the US to oppose the bill in Congress and force Obama administration to
back away from the agreement. In his opinion the deal should have been linked
with the changed positive behaviour of Iran. Israel perceives that lifting of
the sanctions will provide requisite space and funding to Iran to exert its
influence in the region especially arming and funding Hezbollah to target
civilians installation and Jewish settlements in Israel. Their most pronounced
concern is that the deal with provide free hand to Iran to pursue her nuclear
programme and acquire nuclear weapon detrimental to the security of Israel.
President Obama and his team are continuously in touch with Israeli leadership
assuring them that the deal has effectively closed all doors to the the
development of nuclear weapon for Iran.
The U.S. Allies in the Middle East are quite perturbed with the idea of
concluding a nuclear deal with Iran. While they were and continue to remain
concerned with a nuclear armed Iran they are equally concerned with a sanction
free Iran with enhanced conventional capability and enough fiscal space to fund
Shia population in the region. In fact Saudi Arabia fears encirclement by the
Iranian supported Regimes in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen coupled
with Islamic State in the North and evolving Al-Qaeda threat in the Arabian Sea.
The gradual shifting of US focus from Middle East and Afghanistan to Pivot Asia
Pacific has further exacerbated the security concerns of her allies in the
region and they feel isolated and threatened. The common threat has forced Saudi
Arabia and Israel to forge an alliance against Iran.
Iranians are already celebrating the victorious deal; for them the deal is a win
win situation. Once declared by the U.S. as a rouge state and part of axis of
evil the deal is definitely a diplomatic success for Iran. The conservative
Iranian society is desperately looking forward to open up to the world under the
slightly liberal government of President Rouhani. The deal will allow Iranian
banks to deal with the international banking system. Iran will also get access
to its frozen assets since 1979 and will get much needed fiscal space to invest
in the depleting oil industry to achieve its full production potential. The deal
will also allow her foreign direct investment and export oil and gas to Europe
at competitive cost. Chabahar deep sea port will be developed in a short span of
time allowing road/ rail link to Afghanistan, Central Asian Republics and
beyond. With the lifting of UN sanctions Iran will be able to enhance her
conventional military capability especially import of S-300 air defence system
from Russia much to the detriment of Israel and Sunni Gulf States. Lastly,
Iranian public will feel immediate relief due economic activity.
Russia is quite contended with the deal as she has been supporting Iranian cause
at international forums. In the absence of international sanctions Russia will
be able to sell her conventional military hardware to Iran and in return will
purchase 90% of Iranian access enriched uranium and extra nuclear centrifuges.
As far as China is concerned, being part of P5, it must have pondered on the
pros and cons of the deal and safeguarded her interests before giving go ahead
for the conclusion of the agreement. Besides, China will be able to import much
needed oil and gas through Pakistan. However, development of Chabahar port as a
competitor to Gwadar port will prove to be an undesired knot in the so called
Chinese "String of Pearls" in the Indian Ocean.
India should be happy with the deal as despite sanctions she has invested
heavily in the development of Chabahar port where two berths are reserved for
India allowing her land access to Afghanistan and CARs. With its presence in
Afghanistan and South of Iran, India will be in a position to create dilemma for
Pakistan posing two front war scenario especially sea blockade in case of war
between the two nuclear arch rivals.
The government of Pakistan has welcomed nuclear deal with Iran. Removal of
sanctions against Iran will allow Pakistan to import oil, gas and electricity
from Iran. Long awaited Iran Pakistan gas pipeline is near completion and can be
functional within six months.However, with multiple options available to Iran to
export her energy assets, perhaps Pakistan will have to renegotiate the price
tag. Pakistan has unwritten strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia and will defend
the territorial integrity of Saudi Arabia especially Harmain Shareefain. By
remaining away from the Yemeni crisis Pakistan has made it clear to Saudi
Arabia, Iran and rest of the world that it will not indulge in the sectarian
division of the Ummah and would rather prefer to contribute towards conflict
resolution. However, Pakistan will to have to maintain a fine balance in
articulating relationship with Iran and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan should make it
clear to both the countries that it would not allow them to make Pakistan a
proxy battleground to promote their cause by funding their respective schools of
thought. Let's wait and watch as to how the nuclear deal with Iran unfolds and
impacts the regional security calculus.